Analysis of migration trends and drivers

Aims

The report compiles empirical evidence on population and migration to inform the Yorkshire and Humber Assembly’s response to the Secretary of State’s proposed changes to the Regional Spatial Strategy [RSS] and to assist local authorities in the development of their Local Development Frameworks [LDF].

Methodology

Secondary analysis of a range of Government statistics and associated projections form the basis of the report

Key issues

The report suggests that international migration will be a significant driver of population change in the United Kingdom in the next 25 years and that within the Yorkshire and Humber region this will equate to a 5% increase in the projected population. However, there is considerable uncertainty about the level of inflow of workers from the Accession countries to the region. These population projections will lead to aggressive targets for new dwelling completions, placing pressure on a flexible and responsive supply of land.

Conclusions

The report notes that the Regional Planning System will need to manage both the increase in the level of house building as well as its profile, density and affordability while at the same time ensuring the quality of new housing. The future balance of short term and long term migration will have implications for housing provision: short term residents will lead to high levels of housing churn while longer term migrants will look to secure more permanent, better quality housing. The report suggests that measuring international migration through ‘real time’ intelligence is essential to support the development and monitoring of its key policy initiatives.