Horizon scanning for the migration sector in Yorkshire and Humber - February 2025
This synopsis, prepared by Migration Yorkshire for the Yorkshire and Humber migration sector, gives an overview of the issues and factors that may shape the sector's priorities over the coming months.
Summary
- National picture: net migration is likely to continue falling in the short term. The Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill includes measures to tackle smuggling gangs, as well as repealing the Safety of Rwanda Act, and much of the Illegal Migration Act.
- E-Visas: the full roll out is expected this year.
- Elections and local government structures: there will be Council elections in Doncaster, and the election for the first Mayor of Hull and East Yorkshire.
- Asylum: efforts to tackle the backlog will be a priority. Hotel use is likely to reduce, but development of other larger scale sites is a possibility. The extended 56 day notice period will be reviewed.
- Children: there’s potential for increased use of the National Age-Assessment Board. There will be mounting pressure on local authorities relating to unaccompanied children making up a higher proportion of Children Looked After and care leavers.
- Refugee resettlement: the Safe and Legal Routes Cap is expected to be confirmed. The new Afghan Resettlement Programme (ARP) will be launched, consolidating the ARAP and ACRS schemes.
- Ukraine: the Ukraine Permission Extension Scheme will open – applicants can apply for an 18-month extension of leave.
- Hong Kong: there’s uncertainty around potential arrival numbers. More people are now eligible to access opportunities such as ESOL classes, but the trend of higher than anticipated numbers with financial difficulties is likely to continue.
- EU nationals: there’s a possibility of teething problems with the process of automatic conversion of pre-settled to settled status for those approaching the end of their leave. Clarification is expected for pre-settled status holders no longer meeting the conditions of their status.
- Modern slavery: there’s potential for policy and legislative changes. Efforts will focus on clearing the backlog of NRM decisions.
- Cohesion: there’s likely to be a continued focus for local authorities following last summer’s riots. Various celebratory events are also planned.
The national picture
Like the previous government, the current administration wants to see a reduction in net migration, however it has not committed to a specific target. Commentators suggest levels will continue to fall as a result of the previous government’s measures to cut migration, although numbers are still likely to be higher than pre-Brexit. In the longer term, while the ONS has predicted that net migration could fall further in the coming years before levelling off, the Migration Observatory has emphasised the uncertainty of the future landscape, and points out that previous forecasts have often underestimated net migration.
There are developments expected in relation to the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC), the independent public body that advises the government on migration:
- Steps will be taken to strengthen the MAC, with staffing set to increase.
- The MAC will work with other government bodies to look at how to reduce international recruitment. This will include a new body, Skills England, to address labour market shortages to reduce the need for overseas workers. Sectors currently recruiting high numbers of staff from abroad will be asked to create training plans with a view to employing more UK workers.
- The MAC will review the planned increase to the minimum income requirement for a family visa (this has already increased from £18,600 to £29,000, but the planned increase to £38,700 is on hold until the outcome of the review). Any decision is thought unlikely to significantly affect net migration numbers as family joiners represent a relatively low proportion of migration overall.
The upcoming Employment Rights Bill may address some of the recommendations made in the MAC’s review of the seasonal worker visa scheme last year. The government has already announced that 43,000 Seasonal Worker visas will be available for horticulture and 2,000 for poultry in 2025, similar numbers to last year.
Small boat crossings are certain to continue throughout 2025 and addressing these is high on the government’s agenda, with a focus on measures to tackle smuggling gangs. The government will also be hoping that its recent agreements with countries including Iraq, Germany, and western Balkan countries, and its strengthened cooperation with other European states and Europol, will start to have an impact on crossings.
Following a record number of deaths of people crossing the Channel in small boats last year, there are likely to be continuing calls for safe and legal routes to the UK from refugee charities and campaigners.
The government’s Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill is likely to pass into law later this year and includes the following measures:
- Formal establishment of the new Border Security Command.
- The creation of new criminal offences: supplying or handling items ‘for use in immigration crime’, and endangering life at sea.
- Enhanced counter terror-style powers to tackle people smuggling gangs, including interim orders to restrict the travel and communication activities of suspected people smugglers. There will be new powers for immigration officers and others to search for and confiscate items such as mobile phones. Critics have questioned whether such measures will impact the number of people crossing the Channel in small boats.
- The Bill will formally end the Migration and Economic Development Partnership (MEDP) with Rwanda. It will also repeal most of the Illegal Migration Act 2023.
Although the government previously indicated possible interest in an Italy-Albania style deal for offshore asylum processing, and there have been media reports naming possible countries, no concrete proposals have been made. Given the failure of the Rwanda plan and the difficulties faced by the Italian scheme, it seems more likely that the government will focus its efforts on the planned measures described above. If offshore processing was initiated, this would raise questions about how people granted a positive decision would then come to the UK and be supported.
Increases in immigration removals look set to continue. The government aims to increase capacity in the detention estate in line with the previous government’s plans, and to negotiate new returns agreements. It has set up reintegration programmes in 11 countries to support people once returned.
The government focus on tackling illegal working is likely to continue, with enforcement activities targeting specific businesses such as nail bars, car washes, construction sites and supermarkets.
The full roll out of e-Visas is expected. There are concerns that vulnerable people may not be aware of their need to go through the process or could be exploited as they do so. Despite the extension of the use of biometric residence permits (BRPs) and a new telephone line for those who experience difficulties, fears remain that it could leave some people in similar circumstances to victims of the Windrush scandal, finding they cannot evidence status and being threatened with deportation or not being able to access employment, housing and banking.
A permanent appointment to the interim Independent Chief Inspector of Borders and Immigration (ICIBI) will be made in due course. Inspections to be carried out in 2025 include:
- fee waivers
- clandestine entry to the UK
- age assessments
- Home Office management of contact with migrants who are without leave to enter or remain.
The government is expected to respond to a review of Civil Legal Aid. This includes legal aid for asylum and immigration matters.
Reports from several government consultations and inquiries are likely to be published. These include the Home Affairs Committee’s inquiry into asylum accommodation, the Women and Equalities Committee’s inquiry into community cohesion, and a government consultation on whether families with no recourse to public funds should be able to access the Healthy Start scheme.
The outlook for international student trends is hard to predict. Despite 2024 restrictions on this group seeming to have led to falling numbers of study visas and far fewer dependant visas, university acceptance figures for January indicate interest in the UK higher education sector from overseas.
The Private Members’ Refugees (Family Reunion) Bill, introduced by Liberal Democrat peer Baroness Hamwee, will continue its progress through the House of Lords. The proposed legislation would broaden the definition of ‘family’ and allow children to sponsor parents to come to the UK. The Bill is very unlikely to succeed unless it has the support of government.
Local authorities face severe financial pressures, which will influence their response to ongoing and new ventures in migration reform. Spending to support households with no recourse to public funds (NRPF) is likely to remain high.
Elections and local government structures
Local elections are set for 1 May. Council elections will take place in Doncaster, and there will be an election for the first Mayor of Hull and East Yorkshire, who will lead the new Hull and East Yorkshire Combined Authority (HEYCA).
Attention on migration may affect political decisions. Local and mayoral elections in May may be influenced by this, and if there are political changes at these elections then this could affect policy plans thereafter.
A programme of local government reorganisation will start, with two-tier authorities changing to unitary authorities, and some unitary authorities being restructured (councils in our region will be unaffected).
Asylum and new refugees
Decision making will remain a significant focus as the Home Office tackles the backlog of asylum applications. The government’s main focus is on initial decisions but there needs to be additional resource to respond to asylum appeals. This ties into the need for more legal aid funding as asylum seekers need representation at tribunals.
Government will likely review its country policy and information notes in light of recent political developments in Syria before resuming consideration of claims. There are about 6,500 people from Syria awaiting a decision.
Particularly in relation to people who are ‘appeal rights exhausted’ there could be a 're-learning' and adaptation challenge for local authorities, voluntary and community sector services and other stakeholders, if, as the Home Secretary indicates, asylum operations return to a 2017 model which included a six-month target for initial decisions,
The new 56-day period 'grace period' for continued asylum support when refugees receive status will be reviewed in June. Evidence of the positive impact is likely to be needed. The possibility of returning to a 28-day notice period would bring consequent challenges for local authorities.
The government has said that place-based work is an area of focus and so we're likely to see more efforts on this.
The Home Office expects pressures on the asylum accommodation estate will ease and the temporary increase in use of contingency accommodation will fall accordingly. It has been announced that nine contingency sites will close in March.
The Asylum Accommodation and Support Contract (AASC), held by Mears in the region, continues until 2029 with a break clause in 2026. There is uncertainty about whether the break clause could be invoked.
There’s no indication that the government will consider changing the rules on asylum seekers’ right to work. Professor Brian Bell, chair of the MAC, has reportedly said he supports people in the asylum system being allowed to work in any role after waiting six months for their claim to be decided. The MAC has previously said that permission to work should not be restricted to the shortage occupation list (now immigration salary list).
The Immigration Advice Authority (formerly OISC) will find its feet, with funding and priorities to be confirmed.
Children
2025 may see more discussions relating to the Home Office’s role with children and young people and how this should be transferred to other departments. The Illegal Migration Act 2023 reforms to the National Transfer Scheme and powers for the Home Office to accommodate and support unaccompanied asylum-seeking children (UASC) have not been enacted. Likewise, the use of biological methods as part of the age assessment (in the Immigration Regulations 2024) is unlikely to be implemented. ADCS has recommended that the leadership of the National Transfer Scheme should move to the Department of Education instead.
Asylum claims for unaccompanied children from the four highest grant-rate nationalities (Afghanistan, Eritrea, South Sudan and Sudan) will receive faster decisions in 2025, as the Streamlined Asylum Process has been extended to include all claimants from those countries regardless of the date of entry to the UK.
The recent Department for Education’s statistics on children looked after (CLA) revealed UASC form 9% of all CLA, up from 6% in 2020, and 30% of 18-year-old care leavers are former-UASC. This changing demography raises several issues:
Placement sufficiency: we may see increased pressures on local authorities’ finances and placement demands. It could result in further regulations or penalties being included in the existing OFSTED guidance; or perhaps see a deregulation of the placement systems to allow different options to be included and meet the demands.
Lack of funding: there is already limited funding and provision for care leavers, particularly former-UASC. Few care leavers access high education and a significant percentage of them may be exposed to homelessness.
Risk of exploitation: more strains on local authority resources and services potentially leave more young people exposed to the risk of crime, exploitation and homelessness.
As local authorities deal with greater resource pressures, we may see more use of the National Age Assessment Board (NAAB) across the UK. NAAB may consider expanding their existing capacity to undertake more age assessments and deliver training.
Refugee resettlement
UNHCR estimates that the global resettlement needs for 2025 will be 2.9 million individuals, which represents an increase of 500,000 compared with 2024, and a doubling of 2021 figures. Syrians continue to be the largest refugee population in need of resettlement, followed by refugees from Afghanistan, South Sudan, Myanmar, Sudan, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Resettlement needs in the Middle East and North Africa have increased by around 50%, with roughly 200,000 in Lebanon in need of resettlement. UNHCR predict an increase in forced displacement due to the effects of climate change.
We are awaiting information on the government’s UKRS commitment for April 2025 onwards. Between April 2024 and March 2025, the Home Office committed to accepting referrals for 500 individuals onto the United Kingdom Resettlement Scheme (UKRS).
The Safe and Legal Routes Cap was expected to come into force in January 2025, however we are awaiting confirmation of next steps following the change in government. The outcome will determine the number of individuals local authorities resettle in 2025.
A number of developments are expected in relation to Afghan resettlement schemes:
- 2025 will see the launch of the new Afghan Resettlement Programme (ARP), a single Afghan resettlement route that consolidates the ARAP and ACRS schemes. Work is ongoing at pace to design the new programme. We do not yet know the projected number of arrivals for 2025.
- Many resettled families may continue to find it difficult to secure affordable and sustainable accommodation. Resettlement via both the Afghan Relocation and Assistance Policy (ARAP) and the Afghan Citizens Resettlement Scheme (ACRS) will continue to provide transitional accommodation for new arrivals before movement into longer-term settled accommodation. The Renters (Reform) Bill will have an impact on housing, abolishing section 21 ‘no fault’ evictions and providing more rights to tenants, potentially reducing movement between properties and the available housing stock.
- We anticipate the Local Authority Housing Fund (LAHF) will generate a number of properties for resettled refugees over the next two years. Further updates on capital funding are likely to be announced in the Spending Review in the spring.
- This year Afghan refugees may also be considered for a new sponsorship scheme, Communities for Afghans (CfA), where sponsor groups provide welcome and support to families, including sourcing a property. Managed by MHCLG, Citizens UK is leading programme delivery.
Community Sponsorship (CS) continues for families in the UKRS and ACRS cohorts. The organisation RESET is working with local authorities and sponsor groups to increase the number of placements available to resettled families, and CS will continue as one of the safe routes for refugees to come to the UK.
Ukraine
The Homes for Ukraine scheme will remain open but new applicants can now only receive 18 months leave to remain rather than 36 months.
The Home Office opened applications on 4 February for the Ukraine Permission Extension Scheme, where people who previously arrived on one of the three schemes can apply for an 18-month extension of leave.
Huge pressure remains on councils around homelessness and finding independent accommodation for Ukrainians, in part due to landlords’ reluctance to offer tenancies when people have less than one year remaining on their visa. The thank you payment offered to all hosts will reduce to £350 from 1 April which may make it more challenging for hosts to continue, and close family members will not be entitled to receive a thank you payment under the Ukrainian Permission Extension Scheme.
There may be a shift to assessing the longer-term integration needs of Ukrainians who have been here for longer than originally anticipated and have begun to put down roots. The Ukraine Scheme still does not contain a route to settlement so clarity over the long-term futures for visa holders is needed.
Hongkongers with British National Overseas (BNO) visas
The number of arrivals on this route has been slowing down, but might pick up again if the political situation in Hong Kong was to deteriorate further.
More BNO visa holders are completing three years residency in the UK and can now access mainstream ESOL classes, apprenticeships and other employment and training related initiatives.
A higher percentage of BNO visa holders are experiencing financial difficulties then initially anticipated. This trend is set to continue this year, as many are still struggling to secure sustainable jobs. More might approach local authorities for support as awareness is increasing.
Annual funding for support (employment, mental health and hate crime reporting) initiatives currently available through the Hong Kong BN(O) programme continues to mean longer-term planning is a challenge.
EU nationals
There might be teething problems with the process of automatic conversion of pre-settled to settled status for those approaching the end of their leave, due to start in January 2025.
Where a pre-settled status holder no longer meets the conditions of their pre-settled status those individuals will likely need immigration advice, which remains scattered and might become even more so (if the funding for organisations to provide immigration support with EUSS applications is not extended beyond March 2025).
More EU nationals with pre-settled status should be able to access homelessness assistance, following the change of guidance for local authorities who now must consider whether their decision will breach the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights.
The expansion of the Electronic Travel Authorisation (ETA) to EU nationals from April 2025 is likely to drive changes to the EUSS process for EU nationals wanting to join their family members in the UK, who can currently apply from within the UK.
Recently arrived EU nationals without eligibility under the EUSS might seek support from local authorities and there could be an increase in modern slavery referrals for this group.
Modern slavery
The government plans ‘long term reform’ in relation to modern slavery. It has indicated it will take a victim-centred approach to modern slavery, with the portfolio-holder now being the Minister for Safeguarding and Violence Against Women and Girls, rather than an immigration minister as was previously the case. The Labour Party made a manifesto commitment to create a specific offence of child criminal exploitation so this may well form part of any legislative changes.
The Home Office anticipates making decisions on modern slavery cases for over 20,000 people still awaiting an outcome over the next two years, having recruited additional staff to help achieve this.
While many provisions in the Illegal Migration Act relating to modern slavery will be repealed by the Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill, the ‘public order disqualification’ measure is to be retained; this is likely to result in concerns that victims coerced into criminality will not be able to access support.
The Employment Rights Bill will strengthen employee rights and it is hoped it will provide better protection against exploitation, although measures are not expected to come into force until autumn 2026. The Fair Work Agency will be established through the Bill, bringing together enforcement functions currently the responsibility of different agencies.
The government is considering protective measures aimed at encouraging workers to report exploitation. Any decision on this may be informed by the pilot scheme funded by the London Mayor which will allow people with ‘insecure’ immigration status to report workplace exploitation without fear of their details being shared with the Home Office.
Integration and cohesion
Cohesion is likely to be a continued focus for local authorities affected by the riots last summer. Similarly, it may be a concern in some areas in light of the recently announced national review relating to grooming gangs, amid renewed media and political attention towards the issue. The government will respond to the Women and Equalities Committee inquiry on community cohesion, and may respond to calls for a national cohesion strategy.
The spotlight is on Bradford as it celebrates its status as UK City of Culture 2025 with a multitude of events and activities taking place throughout the year. In Sheffield the Migration Matters festival will take place in June.
Refugee Week 2025 takes place in June. The theme is ‘Community as a Superpower’. Events and celebrations will be held across the country including in towns and cities in Yorkshire and Humber.
About this briefing
This briefing was prepared by Kate James in January 2025.
For further information, contact us at admin@migrationyorkshire.org.uk